Clinched!

The Associated Press is reporting that, according to their tally, Barack Obama has “effectively” clinched the Democratic nomination.

The AP tally was based on public commitments from delegates as well as more than a dozen private commitments. It also included a minimum number of delegates Obama was guaranteed even if he lost the final two primaries in South Dakota and Montana later in the day.

On a related note.

If it holds true that Barack Obama has clinched the Democratic nomination, his keynote speech at the Democrat National Convention is scheduled to take place on August 28th; the 45th anniversary of what is arguably the most famous speech in American history. Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. gave his immortal “I Have a Dream” speech from the steps of the Lincoln Memorial on August 28th, 1963.

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22 thoughts on “Clinched!

  1. It is obvious to everyone that momentum is shifting to Obama today, and it is only a matter of time before he “clinches” the nomination. The superdelegates are clearly not going to come over to Hillary right now in the numbers she needs. She will probably be forced to “withdraw” very soon.

    What’s easily forgotten, however, is that “clinching” the nomination is an oxymoron in the democratic race when pledged delegates are so close. Hillary would have to be some sort of superhero if she were to go quietly through the next few months without the idea of a coup floating around in the back of her mind. Of course she’s thinking about it. Right now she may seem to impossibly far behind Obama, but superdelegates can change their minds in a volatile election like this one, and theres still a couple months to go to August. Look for Hillary to temporarily drop out of view and let the Republicans hit him with everything they’ve got. Then, if he sustains damage, watch for her to get back in it a few days before the convention.

  2. While I wouldn’t put it past her, it would be suicide for the Dems if the superdelegates jerked with the nomination after Obama had earned the victory. The Obama camp has brought a ton of new voters and independents into the process, not to mention carrying nearly all the black vote.

    If they jerked his nomination away after he was victorious in the primary process, they would absolutely alienate those voters. Which would be a death sentence. No way that happens.

  3. i think it’s funny that as of now, 3:58 PM, the Clinton camp is still adamantly denying that she is giving up…though at the same time they are admitting that she would be willing to run as VP on his ticket…such crap.

  4. If I had to guess, she’s probably trying to hold her earned delegates as leverage for the VP slot. Which is kind of laughable since he wouldn’t need them anyway.

    While I think Obama will get pressure to “unite” the party by selecting her, I hope he doesn’t. While it won’t change my vote for him come November, it would significantly diminish the whole “Change” thing.

    I also don’t think he could possibly choose her as a running mate. Her harsh criticism of him throughout the campaign would be easy fodder for the Republicans come fall. How is she going to be his running mate when she once said John McCain would make a better President than Obama? 😆

  5. i think edwards is the only VP candidate that makes sense. they need the southern connection. and, if hillary were vp she’d just have him whacked.

    i hope that doesn’t go on my patriot act file. there’s already too much!

    anyways, i won’t believe anything about clinching until november. geez, time or newsweek had him as “winner!” on the cover a month or 2 ago.

  6. Newsweek’s Howard Finestein reported yesterday on MSNBC that she wants to be offered the spot, turn it down and have it agreed that Obama will not dare offer the VP spot to another woman. This is from the Huffington Post, which includes the video.

  7. I have a hard time seeing her on the ticket. For all the good that might come of it (from the Dems perspective), I see a ton of downside.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if you see her in his cabinet, assigned to healthcare. But Edwards or Richardson would make alot more sense to me. I’ll take either. Richardson will go a long way toward bridging the black/hispanic divide. And it sure would be interesting to see the Governor of Arizona running against the Senator for Arizona. (So maybe that’s not very likely after all.)

  8. conversation snippet.
    tim: “ma, are you watching tv? i’m at pub trivia and the guy said obama won”
    ma: “(sighs deeply) yes.”
    tim: “what? you hate hillary. you’re going to vote mccain so why huffin’?”
    ma: “i just see him being a lot of trouble.”
    tim: “what? why?”
    ma: “my discernment, timothy” (AND YOU KNOW YOU CAN’T ARGUE AGAINST CHRISTIAN DISCERNMENT!)
    tim: “ok. but you honestly would prefer the alternative?”
    ma: “well, she has more experience…”
    tim: “so you know how to run a restaurant b/c dad does?”
    ma: “you know what i mean. he’s trouble. he’s a wolf in sheeps clothing! i still think he’s a muslim!!!”
    tim: “wow. yeah. i have a feeling that your opinion is affected by something else.”
    ma: “oh no it’s not his skin color, you know i’m not like that.”
    tim: “(considers starting an argument but realizes a., it’s time to return to trivia, and b. honor thy mother) i gotta get back to trivia. love ya.”

    i know a lot of readers related to that. thank God my memory for silly conversations is SPOT-ON! haha 🙂

  9. He’s always going to have to deal with that. There’s no getting around it. His name rhymes with Osama, his middle name is Hussein and he spent a couple years of elementary school in a public school in a Muslim country. Therefore in the minds of some, he is a Muslim, always was a Muslim, always will be.

    (Of course, these people fail to realize that his persistent claims of a faith in Christ, and repeated rejection of the notion that he is a Muslim, would be an offense to Allah so grave that he’d find himself stoned to death by the very people they fear he’s secretly connected to.)

    But I’ve been in and overheard many similar conversations. And I think that in alot of cases we see an individual’s fears being called “discernment.” And that’s unfortunate. Because I recall the Bible somewhere teaching that “we have not been given a spirit of fear.”

  10. Tim, I’ve had that same conversation with so many people in my family. Great recall man!

    Except it’s usually over the phone and that phrase, “you know I’m not like that” is dead on. I really want to say, “I always noticed you locked the car door everytime someone of color was standing at an intersection and you were stopped by the light or whispered “black” when referring to someone.”
    So I just pretend one of the kids needs me to get out of escalating things.

    I am going to the Daily Show tonight. Can’t wait to see how this all gets handled by the folks over there the day after. Unfortunately, Barbara Walters is the guest. Last time I went, I saw Walken.

  11. This whole thing has brought race to the forefront of a few conversations with our four year old. He knows who Barack Obama is, and when I’m watching the news he hears him being referred to as a “black” candidate.

    Add to that the fact that we’re about to move into a predominantly black neighborhood. (We’re basically integrating it.) And there have been alot of teaching moments regarding race in our house lately.

    I can recall having alot of similar conversations with my dad as a kid. Looking back on it now, for a white dude growing up in the 60s in rural New York, my father always seemed more progressive to me, regarding race, than most of his – shall we say – peers.

    I don’t recall ever hearing my father using a racial slur or speaking of any ethnic group in a derogatory way. Heck, he was even good friends with a black guy named Clarence that he used to bring to church once in a while. (Of course, one time in particular just happened to be when the 80+ year old elder was filling the pulpit and referred to blacks as “darkies” – but that’s beside the point. 😆 )

    I’m happy to have an opportunity to ratchet that acceptance and inclusion up a few notches with my own son.

    I mean seriously. Think about it. On Wednesday, November 5th, teachers in urban schools might be able to tell their black students that if they work hard they could be the President of the United States someday. And for the very first time in history it would be believable.

    You and I never knew that America.

  12. “I mean seriously. Think about it. On Wednesday, November 5th, teachers in urban schools might be able to tell their black students that if they work hard they could be the President of the United States someday. And for the very first time in history it would be believable.

    You and I never knew that America.”

    Right on, Shane! My daughter comes home having learned new words from friends in Creole, Korean, Cambodian and Spanish (nothing dirty yet, although she told me “femme les bouche” the other day). She learned about Dr. King in school and loves seeing his picture anywhere, he’s currently her hero not named Dad. She is truly troubled to tears when she hears that anyone could be mistreated (or worse) because of skin color or how they look in general. She really believes she could be anything she wants and for the first time in our history, that might be as close to true as we could imagine. Currently she wants to be a fundraiser for a non-profit organization. She has lead the way towards our family getting a plot in the community garden and start recycling even though it’s not offered at our building. She is able to get around the internet with ease and keeps asking for an iPhone. Anna is 6.

    America is a much different place than when we were 6. We are part of the global village now economically and philosophically. My brief time in Germany opened my eyes to this. The rules have changed in how we interact with one another because we are increasingly transcultural. For the first time, people college age and younger have more in common with someone their age globally than they do with the people they share a home with. They are truly getting their values horizontally rather than being handed them vertically and it reaches far beyond what they learn in school.

    Anna gets that because it is the world she lives in. Same goes for your boy. I will fight to not let her lose it rather than succomb to the will of those who would rather move further inward (both geographically and metaphorically) than have to deal with “them folks who ain’t speaking English right.”

    You’re right, we never knew that America but it is inexcusable not to know it now. If we don’t know where to start they can teach us about it.

  13. Amen Tim.

    But let me clarify just one little thing. When I said “you and I never knew that America” I meant that – as white kids – we never grew up thinking we couldn’t really be President because of our skin color.

    But I like your take on my comment too! 🙂

  14. Thanks. I kinda got that, except that I always knew I couldn’t be President because I was raised in a poor single parent home and I wasn’t going to be attending an Ivy League School to become a lawyer or go to a Military Academy.

    Maybe things haven’t changed that much after all. For a minute there I thought that even I could be President.

    Screw it, I’m running! Who’s with me?

  15. I’m not. I’m not allowed.

    I would love to run for City Council in like 5-10 years but Cheryl says I’m not allowed. She says I already made her be a pastor’s wife, so I can’t make her be the wife of a politician! 😆

  16. Sarah always says that other than First Lady, no “job” comes with more expectations than a Pastor’s wife. Of course, neither get paid.

    You’re right, I hereby withdraw my bid for President. Thank you to all who supported me over the past hour and a half. God Bless you and God Bless the United States of America or something like that. I’m out.

  17. for me, this is a sad sad election.
    an ultra liberal dem
    or
    a psuedo liberal rep

    it’s absolutely maddening.

    in addition, i think hillary will do everything she can to poisen obama’s chances from a distance. if she can get mccain elected, she can run again in 2012. (assuming that no one can really tie her to the poisening of the well)

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