(Hillary) is not taking this to the convention, and she’s not suing the DNC. I’ll put money on it. She’s going to keep running to try to get her campaign out of debt. She’ll tone down the venom to try temper the party’s divide and will end her campaign gracefully after all the primaries have been held. At which point Florida and Michigan will be meaningless – because Obama’s lead will remain too much to overcome (the margin grows wider with each round of primaries) and the superdelegate snowball effect will continue in his favor. Then the DNC will seat all the Florida and Michigan delegates at the convention so as not to alienate voters.
– Shane Bertou, commenting on the post “Is it over for Hillary?” on May 08, 2008.
Pretty much spot on thank you very much. Just eliminate the word “gracefully” and change “all the Florida and Michigan delegates” to “half” and I nailed it. (Although, I’m still holding out on FL and MI. I think that ultimately they’ll decide to seat them all.)
Now for the next round of predictions:
When she gives her speech on Saturday, she will put to rest the speculation regarding her and the VP slot. She’s going to get pressure from senior leadership in the party to stamp out that fire immediately. If that cloud is still looming over this process on Saturday it won’t do anything to help unite the party – it will only make things worse.
If she wants to continue to have a career in politics, she’ll be the ultimate team player now. She’ll tell her supporters that she and Obama spoke about the possibility, but she has decided she can best serve the party by fighting for New Yorkers and the best interests of the country by focusing her attention on her role in the Senate. And she looks forward to working with Sen. Obama in whatever capacity he asks of her during the election process and after he’s sworn in as President of the United States. (*cough* Cabinet position *cough*).
Obama won’t, and shouldn’t, select Hillary as his VP for the following reasons:
1) He’s running as the “Change” candidate. Having someone who has been working in Washington for the past 16 years – behind the scenes and as an elected official – as his running mate is a huge liability.
2) She will constantly try to upstage him. For example, her speech on Tuesday night. That was a historic night for Obama and America. That was his night, and his moment to shine. And yet, instead of conceding and being congratulatory, she instead was still carrying on like she had a shot at winning the nomination.
3) The last thing a first term President wants, especially having won on the platform of “Change,” is a former President sniffing around the White House. Especially when that ex-President is Bill Clinton. That would be a tremendous distraction.
4) The way she chose to run her campaign has made it nearly impossible for her to be on the ticket. How’s she going to be his running mate when she was so critical of his “lack of experience?” How will the Clintons put the race card back in the deck now that it’s been played so often by them? How does Bill take back all the damage he tried to do to Obama’s campaign and then go out and cheer lead for him?
In my opinion, Obama’s short-list should be (in no particular order):
1) Bill Richardson – A Hispanic border-state governor who could be a great asset in bridging the black/Hispanic divide. He would also fit the “Washington outsider” mold better than others.
2) John Edwards – Great on poverty, a Southern Democrat and blue-collar favorite. But he could be damaged goods after losing the VP bid four years ago as John Kerry’s running mate.
3) Kathleen Sebelius – Could be a bit too new to the national political arena, but another rising star in the Democratic party and a blue-collar fave. Her selection could diffuse the hostility Obama is facing from Hillary’s feminist supporters. Or it could enrage them.